1.
Suppose you were the owner of a team in the National
Football League that had not had much success for a long time. And, after
recently going to considerable lengths to find such success, you recognized
that your franchise once again had to start over to somehow try to be
competitive. So, you hit upon the idea of "tanking" to rebuild; that
is, deliberately losing games to get higher picks in the draft. But other
owners and "the League office" itself can't see you doing that
overtly, as they frown upon that. (The National Basketball Association
instituted its draft lottery system due to that very issue -- NBA teams can
deliberately tank but have no guarantee of getting the highest possible draft
picks.)
Given that, what might you do?
You could start by hiring some new staff -- general manager,
head coach, and position coaches -- without much or any experience in
those positions. Your general manager might be in on it with you; that
is, he could collude with you in helping to tank a season (or seasons?). Even
your head coach could be in on it, although it seems best (more
plausible) if he is sincerely able to tell everyone week after week that
"they" are doing their best to try to win games. ("They" as
in “the whole organization,” without him knowing it’s only him, his coaching
staff, and the players trying to win games.)
Another important thing would be to get rid of players (by
various means) who might help you win games. That could look like "dumping
salaries" and "acquiring draft capital." (Which is, of
course, part of the rationale, but the point is that it will help in losing
games if you lack the talent to compete.)
2.
I believe I have just described the New York Jets of 2025.
Woody Johnson hired a new General Manager (Darren Mougey)
and a new Head Coach, Aaron Glenn. The Glenn hiring looked mighty appealing.
He’d recently had success as the defensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions
and was a tough-minded coach cut from the Bill Parcells-Sean Payton
"coaching tree." More importantly, he was a former Jet -- an
outstanding defensive back -- who played when Parcells returned the franchise
to respectability in the 1990s.
In the player roster area, things started well enough. Of
course, getting rid of Aaron Rodgers didn't sit well with everyone, but what a
distraction full of drama that had all been. The Jets ran the ball well
in 2024, when they ran it. (Compare the Cincinnati Bengals and Zac
Taylor's distaste for the running game, no matter how effective it can be.)
Jeff Ulbrich spent the remainder of his interim head coaching opportunity
giving Aaron Rodgers every chance to win games using mostly his wits, his arm,
and Davante Adams.
The Jets' 2025 draft made sense, in that their picks were
not bad as such. They got several promising players -- a couple of
defensive backs and a tight end whose father and maternal uncle were great NFL
players. And they used their first pick on Armand Membou, an exceptional
prospect who may bookend with Olu Fashanu as the Jets’ offensive tackles for
the next few years. Then again, some thought Membou made more sense at right
guard, due to his height, which would have freed Alijah Vera-Tucker to return
to left guard, his original position as a rookie. (Moved to make room for Laken
Tomlinson’s two scintillating seasons, and used at tackle due to other
injuries, he has dealt with injuries himself ever since, and now has three of
five seasons wiped out.)
I might say that the Jets could have traded the seventh
overall pick to (let's say) the Bengals and gotten more draft picks while
drafting (let's say) Jaxson Dart, quarterback from the University of
Mississippi. And they could have used their next pick on Darius Alexander, a
defensive tackle, to potentially pair with Quinnen Williams. I might say
that, because it was my mock draft scenario for the Jets; instead, the
New York Giants got Abdul Carter, traded back into the first round to pick
Dart, and then took Alexander with the first pick in Round 3. (At least I had
the city right – but, incidentally, I am a life-long Washington fan.)
By August, the Jets were scouring the entire planet to find
some defensive tackle who might be able to help. (They'd signed Derrick Nnadi
as an Unrestricted Free Agent and were so impressed that they traded him back
to the Chiefs.) And, of course, at this point, the Jets are gun-shy about
drafting any quarterback. Jaxson Dart may have seemed too much of a
gamble after Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, and ...... Christian
Hackenberg? If it seems like you have no idea how to pick a quarterback or
develop one, you're probably doing the right thing by no longer trying to.
3.
I got the idea to write this once it struck me that
something might be very off aside from the Jets’ 0-7 record. Aaron Glenn was
unusually firm not only about the status of Justin Fields but especially that
of offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand. Whether it was only stubbornness -- or
admirable stoicism in a tough situation -- was hard to tell. But the idea hit
me: this could be how you go about losing now to (hopefully) gain in the
future. Engstrand had never been an offensive coordinator before; I have no
idea if he'd ever called plays before. As his special teams coordinator, Glenn
hired Chris Banjo, who had never been one before.
The Jets went into the season with Justin Fields as their
first-string quarterback (and Tyrod Taylor as an experienced journeyman
backup). Fields is a former first-round draft pick reclamation project who
looked more promising than Trey Lance at this point. And, to complement Garrett
Wilson, the Jets acquired ............. Josh Reynolds -- a nice third receiver
(flanker/slot receiver) on a packed team, but not the most credible prospect to
take attention off Wilson. And they hung onto Allen Lazard, picked up former
Charger Tyler Johnson, and drafted Arian Smith. Not the most inspiring
scenario. All of this seemed to indicate that they were willing to settle for
less.
They traded Michael Carter, a fine but occasionally injured
nickel back, and shortly thereafter, of course, sent off Quinnen Williams and
cornerback Sauce Gardner. That doesn’t seem like a good way to improve your
defense, or even to build one for the future. But it could be a highly
effective way of continuing to lose games (while keeping key players on
offense?).
As a Washington fan, I've recently seen what a complete
teardown looks like. Once they were winning, I had to say they must know what
they're doing. It doesn't look so great now, but my perspective may be
influenced by seeing the young franchise quarterback running the ball in the
middle of the third quarter (down 30-7) with several large men in Seahawks
uniforms bouncing him around. (In other words, I wouldn’t have had Jayden
Daniels in running plays at that point.) But the Washington situation was obvious
and plausible, part of a changeover in culture and the possibility that
"prior management" may not have had the best players. That's not easy
to say with the Jets. The players themselves responded recently by winning two
games in a row. Brandon Stephens has played his butt off this season; Quincy
Williams and Jamien Sherwood always have. It's not as if talent -- let alone
effort -- was lacking.
And that's why I'm inclined to say what's going on seems
more surreptitious (which is another way of saying it’s underhanded, I guess).
Tanking presents plenty of problems, but at least one can argue for its
rationale; even jettisoning your best players to make it harder to compete
makes sense. The real question is whether the coaching staff is in on it,
especially Aaron Glenn. It would be unfair to them if they were hired in
anticipation of their failure. But if your new head coach happens to be black,
that might be important for Woody Johnson once the coach fails, as expected.
Johnson can say, "See, I hired a black coach -- I gave 'one' a chance. And
now it's time to move on with a shiny new .…. coach.”
